Systems vs Guarding, Read Through 2026 Deals

The clearest way to understand where value is sitting in the security sector is to watch what actually changes hands. In 2026, the answer is systems and monitoring, again and again, while manned guarding trades more thinly and more slowly. That pattern is not an opinion. It is written into this year's deal flow, and it has direct consequences for how a business is valued.

What the Numbers Show

The direction was already set last year, with private-equity-backed corporates and pure private equity, the investment firms that buy companies to grow and sell on, active across UK fire and security deals in 2025. That momentum has carried into 2026. Ranger Fire and Security opened the year by acquiring Partnership Fire and Security in January and Centurion Fire and Security in February, and announced Scion Communications and Emerald Fire Technology in late June, following investment from Inflexion. Complii added Tay Fire and Security in December 2025, its twentieth acquisition.

Look at the profile of those targets and a theme repeats: fire and security systems, monitoring, access control and maintenance, with recurring contracted revenue and accreditation attached. That is what the capital is chasing. Guarding-led businesses feature far less often, which tells you something about relative appetite even before you reach the multiples, the numbers buyers multiply profit by to set a price.

What the Published Ranges Say

Published practitioner guidance puts integrated electronic security businesses at 6x to 10x EBITDA (profit before interest, tax, and the write-down of equipment, vehicles and other assets), and scaled platforms with high recurring revenue at 10x to 15x or more. It gives no range for manned guarding. Monitoring books are frequently valued on a different basis entirely, as a multiple of monthly recurring revenue rather than on profit.

On the systems side, revenue tier matters too, with larger businesses typically seeing higher multiples. None of these ranges tells you what your own business is worth, because that depends entirely on the specifics.

Why a Mixed Business Is Priced Line by Line

This is the practical point for owners who do both. If you run guarding and systems under one roof, a buyer will not apply a single blended multiple to the whole thing. They will separate the guarding book from the systems and monitoring book and price each on its own basis. Present the business as one number and a buyer cannot see what each part earns on its own.

The largest recent deal shows the direction, with a caveat. Mitie completed its acquisition of Marlowe in August 2025 in a deal reported at around 350 million pounds, described by one market note as close to 11 times Marlowe's adjusted earnings. That figure applies to a listed compliance platform and is no guide to what an owner-managed firm would fetch, so treat it as context rather than a comparison. What it confirms is the pattern: testing, inspection and certification groups adding electronic security to widen recurring compliance revenue, which is exactly the kind of revenue that carries a premium down the scale as well as at the top.

For any owner, the useful exercise is to understand your own split before a buyer does it for you. Know what proportion of your revenue is recurring and contracted, what is systems and monitoring versus guarding, and what each part would be worth on its own terms. This is one of four forces reshaping security values this autumn, which we set out in full in our cost stack and value stack briefing.

Nick Hunt leads the work on raising what a business is worth before a sale, from margin to owner dependence, meaning how much of the business still runs through you.